Meteorologists who study the tropics, El Niño in particular, are seeing a decrease in the phenomenon and say it is likely the effect will decrease throughout the summer. In a nutshell; there will be a greater risk for hurricanes if El Niño weakens.
El Niño is generated by warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific near Central America. In turn, the warmer waters generate upper-level winds crossing over to the Caribbean and the Atlantic. These winds shear, chop, off the tops of developing tropical storms before they can mature.
The current forecast calls for 9 to 15 named storms this season, and with two already in the books, that leaves 7 to 13 more to fall within the forecast. The season lasts through November giving a weaker, or nonexistent, El Niño scenario plenty of time to play out and allow for increasing hurricane development this fall.
Report: Valley Central